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Thursday, July 17, 2008

Evans: No smoking gun for CO2

Dr David Evans built models for the Australian Greenhouse Office from 1999 thru 2005. He writes in the Australian that scientists have been unable to find the "signature" of an increased greenhouse effect caused by CO2, that there is no smoking hot spot:

The greenhouse signature is missing. We have been looking and measuring for years, and cannot find it.

Each possible cause of global warming has a different pattern of where in the planet the warming occurs first and the most. The signature of an increased greenhouse effect is a hot spot about 10km up in the atmosphere over the tropics. We have been measuring the atmosphere for decades using radiosondes: weather balloons with thermometers that radio back the temperature as the balloon ascends through the atmosphere. They show no hot spot. Whatsoever.

If there is no hot spot then an increased greenhouse effect is not the cause of global warming. So we know for sure that carbon emissions are not a significant cause of the global warming. If we had found the greenhouse signature then I would be an alarmist again.

When the signature was found to be missing in 2007 (after the latest IPCC report), alarmists objected that maybe the readings of the radiosonde thermometers might not be accurate and maybe the hot spot was there but had gone undetected. Yet hundreds of radiosondes have given the same answer, so statistically it is not possible that they missed the hot spot.
Dr. Evans is a convert, a skeptic. He quotes Lord Keynes who asked, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

Be sure to read the whole thing.

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