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Sunday, November 2, 2008

Can McCain win?

As we approach the day of decision in the US election, the daily opinion polls are ranging from a wide lead for Barack Obama to a race that's within the margin of error and too close to call. One national poll yesterday even gave John McCain a one point lead. So what are we to make of all this?

Some feel that the polls are biased towards the Democrats and many pollsters in fact do over sample Democratic voters. But that's because the pollsters are attempting to get a true sample of likely voters and they are influenced by all the hype from the Obama campaign and the media proclaiming a massive turnout by new Democratic voters.

But despite what the opinion polls are telling us every day, a good number of political analysts think that John McCain can still pull out a victory on Tuesday:

Ezra Levant:

I predict that John McCain will win the U.S. presidential election next week.

I believe many Americans are uneasy because Obama has masked himself (with the media's aid). He's masked his past, his friendships and alliances, his philosophy, and even his family details. But every now and then the mask slips and reveals a cultural radical; a constitutional radical; a socialist radical; a foreign affairs radical. And though the mask is quickly fixed back on, and the slip duly papered over by the MSM, I think doubts linger with middle America.
Steven Hill at HuffPost:
All the polls show Obama with a lead, but with polls having a mixed track record, we don't really know how sizable. Meanwhile, there seem to be a fair number of undecided voters who historically have broken for the Republican candidate. The Democratic candidate is African-American with a known Bradley effect out there, though the impact is difficult to quantify. There are unknown questions lingering about defective voting equipment, faulty election administration, purged voters, and Republican attempts to disqualify Democratic voters. What will be their impact, ultimately, on vote totals?

Given all these factors, is there a plausible scenario in which McCain could win? I would say yes, absolutely. Perhaps not likely, but certainly plausible. There is also a plausible scenario in which Obama wins handily. The truth is, there are too many moving parts in this election to know for sure. But if all the above factors line up just the right way, the nation could be in for a shock on Election Night.
And finally el Rushbo:
Now, if you were with us yesterday and you remember the blog post at HillBuzz by the Obama campaign worker named Sarah who basically threw the lid off what is actually going on in the Obama campaign. They're not nearly as far ahead as they have convinced everybody in the media, and a lot of voters. Everything about their campaign, seminar callers, seminar bloggers, seminar responders on YouTube, seminar everything; it is all image; it is being done to craft this notion that there is no stopping Obama, that it is a fait accompli. The only problem is Obama is not behaving that way. Obama is now trying to lower expectations. He's going to states that were in the bag. Let me share with you another post from another anonymous person, this also from the Obama campaign. It's a woman, and what we're picking up out there is that there really are a number of angry Democrat women. They are angry over the way this Democrat party is treating traditional Democrat voters, trying to destroy Joe the Plumber, an average blue-collar guy; trying to destroy Sarah Palin. These women do not like it. Let me read you part four of this latest anonymous post for an Obama campaign worker. This is a different one than Sarah P. from yesterday. This is a long post. I'm just going to read you this one point, number four.
"The Bradley Effect. Do not believe these public polls for a second. I just went over our numbers, found that we have next to no chance --" this is regarding Obama, "-- in the following states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada. Ohio leans heavily to McCain but it's too close to call it for him. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa are the true toss-up states. The only two of these the Obama campaign feels confident are Iowa and New Mexico, but now Obama's headed back to Iowa on Monday. The reason for such polling discrepancy is the Bradley Effect, and this is a subject of much discussion in the campaign. In general, we in the Obama campaign tend to take a ten-point percentage in allowing for this, a minus ten-point percentage for allowing this and are not comfortable until the polls give us a spread well over this mark."
The bottom line is that the polls could be very, very wrong. The Obama campaign, with the full support of most of the main stream media, has successfully created the illusion that Obama is unstoppable and will win in a landslide. And that has influenced the sampling by the pollsters. But it ain't necessarily so.

In the post above, Rush referred to a post by an Obama campaign worker named Sarah P. who warns us not to believe the hype. Here's the link:

Hillbuzz: Confession of an Obama Blogger - by Sarah P

and another, Hillbuzz: Three things the Obamedia will do to depress Republican turnout
which are, in short all designed to demoralize Republicans enough that they don't bother to get out and vote: 1) create the illusion that Obama is unstoppable, 2) create the illusion that Obama is winning large in traditional Republican states and 3) that there's going to be an unbeatable turnout by blacks and youth in support of Obama.

Don't fall for it.

1 comment:

miami air conditioning said...

i voted for Mc Cain, but Obama won, in part I'm happy because, he is prepared, and I know he can do a great job! so , he have to encourage him