ClimateGate news

Sunday, April 1, 2007

IPCC AR4 full report leaked

When the IPCC released its Summary for Policymakers (SPM) report on climate change this February, it was widely under-reported in the media that release of the full Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), containing the scientific basis for the SPM, would be delayed until May. Many criticized the IPCC for releasing the SPM before the full report was completed, kind of like putting the cart before the horse.

With respect to editing of the full Fourth Assessment Report, the IPCC even admitted that:

"Changes (other than grammatical or minor editorial changes) made after acceptance by the Working Group or the Panel shall be those necessary to ensure consistency with the Summary for Policymakers or the Overview Chapter."
Now details of the full 1,600 page IPCC AR4 report have been leaked - and despite the efforts of the policy wonks to make the full AR4 report conform with the SPM, there are some pretty significant discrepancies:
  • Insufficient data on which to base predictions of extreme temperatures and precipitation.
  • Predictions of sea level rise were greatly overstated in the SPM. Data suggest a global mean sea-level rise of 2 mm to 3 mm per year over the past several decades,
  • The SPM gave limited consideration to aerosols, solar activity and land-use change for
    explaining 20th century climate changes,
  • There is no support for the SPM's key conclusion that it is very likely that anthropogenic greenhouse-gas increases caused most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century,
  • The SPM ignores contrary evidence in AR4 and alternate theories like cosmic radiation
Reaction to the leak has been slow in coming. British Prime Minister Tony Blair had this to say:
"We remain committed to solving global warming, but at the same time my government must, and will take a close look at the Fourth Assessment Report and if there are discrepancies with the Summary Report, we will decide what must be done."
Czech President Vaclav Klaus wasn't quite a diplomatic:
"This changes everything. The IPCC is a shambles."
In Canada, the current leader of the Liberal Party was unfazed by news of the leaked report:
"Canada must meet her commitment to Kyoto. I do not want to win an election on this, but I am ready. I am ready"
This is stunning news. You must read the full story from the Source.

Update: more reaction is coming in from interested parties...


Pontiac 1940 said...


Rather fitting since the whole IPCC process is a joke anyway.



Anonymous said...

Bastard! lol

Zookeeper said...

I have always thought that the IPCC had realized that its most outrageous claims in earlier reports were not substantiated, but that it was taking them some time to rein in the wildest fanatics posing as scientists in their group. So the summary was toned down (by IPCC standards) and the next step was to scrub out the loopy claims of cataclysm in the full report.

Nothing in today's news seriously undermines my supposition. We are witnessing the beginning of the end for the doomsayers. A few people at the top have figured out that they were in the process of entirely losing their credibility, and are beginning to turn the ship.

Mind you, it's a big ship, and a big turn to make.

Teaparty said...