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Tuesday, March 6, 2007

Pielke: Serious error in recent IPCC report

Peter C. Glover at the Global Warming Hysteria blog writes:

Roger Pielke Snr., of the Climate Science Research Group, Colorado highlights what is a serious error in the recent IPCC Statement for Policymakers.
Here is a quote from Roger Pielke's website:
The SPM reports on a “Total Net Anthropogenic” global average radiative forcing for 2005 of +1.6 [0.6 to 2.4] Watts per meter squared. When one converts the units, this means that the Earth’s climate system should be accumulating Joules at a rate of 2.61*10**22 Joules per year [0.98*10**22 Joules to 3.91*10*22 Joules per year] in 2005.

The data, however, show quite a different accumulation of Joules in recent years, and in 2005 in particular...

What these observations mean is that the statement in the IPCC SPM that there is a positive radiative forcing of 1.6 [0.6 to 2.4] Watts per meter squared in 2005 (when this was not true based on real data) is a particularly egregious error. Rather than relying solely on model based estimates to calculate a global radiative forcing, the authors of the IPCC Report should have also used real world data for the assessment of the net radiative forcing.
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